EU review finds no broad relocation pattern after shipping ETS expansion

The European Commission’s first review of the extension of the European Union Emissions Trading System to maritime transport has found no evidence of a broad relocation trend linked to the measure. The review covers an extension that began on 1 January 2024 and concerns about 12,000 large ships.

This article is independently written from factual information in the Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action announcement of 19 March 2025. The announcement and its linked reports are the cited source for every factual point presented here.

What the first review examined

The Commission said it found no general relocation of container transhipment to non-EU ports attributable to the maritime ETS. It also found no widespread pattern of additional calls at neighbouring non-EU ports that could be attributed to the system. Those findings address one of the principal concerns surrounding rules that put a carbon cost on activity connected with European ports.

The review did not identify a general shift from shipping to road transport. Nor did it find evidence of increased use of smaller ships or a broad reduction in services to EU islands and outermost regions. The Commission’s conclusion is framed at system level. It does not state that no individual commercial adjustment has occurred, but that the evidence did not show a general pattern across the sector.

The distinction matters because shipping networks are made up of routes, terminals and vessels with different operating choices. A change at one port or on one service would not, on its own, establish a sector-wide response. The Commission’s first report therefore offers an initial assessment rather than a final judgment on every future effect.

A second report points to smaller ships

Alongside the ETS implementation report, the Commission reviewed maritime monitoring data. That work identified more than 5,300 vessels between 400 and 5,000 gross tonnage outside the current scope of the system. Together, those vessels emit about 11 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually, according to the Commission’s notes.

Including the smaller ships could increase the number of regulated vessels by about 42 per cent. The Commission estimated that emissions coverage would rise by about 9 per cent. Those figures describe a possible expansion of coverage, not a change already made by the review.

The Commission also flagged administrative-cost concerns. Any decision to bring additional vessels into the regime would therefore involve more than calculating extra emissions. It would require consideration of the reporting, monitoring and compliance work that would fall on a substantially larger group of operators.

For now, the review leaves the existing scope in place while placing the smaller-vessel question in clearer view. The report’s immediate message is that the maritime ETS extension has not produced evidence of broad evasion through route relocation or modal substitution. Its longer-term message is that policymakers have a sizeable group of smaller vessels and a quantified emissions gap to consider.

The first review consequently sets two reference points for the next stage of discussion. The system already covers about 12,000 large ships, while more than 5,300 vessels sit below the present threshold. The Commission’s evidence does not resolve whether the latter group should be included, but it gives the debate a defined scale and identifies administrative cost as part of the decision.

Reporting note This Maritime Gazette report is independently written from cited factual information published by European Commission, Directorate-General for Climate Action.