MABUX has warned that bunker prices are likely to stay volatile through October, driven by lingering geopolitical tension and constrained product supplies, sources indicated on 1 October 2026.
Sources said the analysis reflected market moves seen in September, when prices were pushed higher by uncertainty in the Middle East and by reductions in product flows from traditional suppliers.
Geopolitical pressure
Uncertainty across the Middle East and risks around the Strait of Hormuz were highlighted as primary drivers of market nervousness, with the report noting supply and shipping disruptions that tightened available bunkers.
The analysis pointed to reduced output and movements of product from Gulf exporters as a clear upward influence on the market. Reduced Russian product flows were also cited as a supporting factor for heavier price levels.
Supply tightness and product mix
Tightness in distillates and very low sulphur fuel oil contributed to upward pressure on bunker values, the report noted, leaving many operators facing narrower supply options and higher acquisition costs.
At the same time, MABUX’s assessment acknowledged an offsetting force: weaker expectations for global oil demand. That softer demand outlook helped to temper some of the upward momentum, preventing a more sustained rally in bunker rates.
Taken together, the combination of supply-side constraints and mixed demand signals produced a market described as unsettled rather than uniformly bullish. The balance between disruption-driven support for prices and dampened demand expectations underpinned the foreseen volatility.
Market participants were therefore advised to expect continued price swings through October, with short-term moves likely to reflect changes in regional security and in flows of distillates and VLSFO. reports presented these points as the basis for MABUX’s expectation of continued volatility.
The report did not detail specific price levels or regional port effects, focusing instead on the principal drivers shaping the bunker market heading into October. Industry watchers will be looking for any easing of supply constraints or signs of a demand rebound to determine whether volatility will diminish in the weeks ahead.
Editor profile