MABUX warns of continued bunker-market volatility for September

MABUX has warned that bunker markets are likely to remain volatile through September, identifying a cluster of geopolitical and supply-side pressures that shaped trading in August. Sources indicated on 1 September 2026 that the index pointed to continued uncertainty as the month began.

According to the report, August was shaped principally by developments in the Middle East and by a series of supply and price pressures further along the petroleum chain. MABUX emphasised that movements in crude oil and constraints on refined products carried through into bunker pricing and availability.

The assessment highlighted crude oil volatility as a persistent influence on bunker valuations, with price swings in seaborne crude feeding through to fuel oil and distillate markets. Tightness in distillate supplies and constrained availability of low-sulphur fuels were singled out as additional factors that tightened the bunker complex.

Geopolitical risk centred on the Strait of Hormuz

MABUX identified the Middle East conflict and restrictions affecting the Strait of Hormuz as the main source of market volatility in August. The report linked reduced Gulf exports to wider instability in regional flows and said those dynamics had supported sharper, less predictable price behaviour.

Supply-side strains and regional imbalances

The index also noted that regional imbalances in bunker availability amplified the market response to those geopolitical and crude-driven shocks. Limited supplies of distillates and low-sulphur fuel oil in particular were reported to have accentuated short-term dislocations between regions.

In its outlook, MABUX said these combined drivers were likely to sustain volatility in September rather than produce a rapid return to calmer markets. The index framed the expectation as a continuation of patterns observed in August, where the interplay of Middle East developments and narrow refined-product balances pushed bunker prices into a more unstable range.

For ship operators and bunker purchasers the report underlines an environment in which procurement windows and stock strategies may be tested by intermittent availability and sudden price moves. MABUX’s analysis, as relayed by reports on 1 September 2026, suggests market participants should expect ongoing short-term uncertainty while these underlying drivers remain active.