The Marine Accident Investigation Branch has published an interim report into the loss of the UK‑registered sailing yacht Bayesian, which foundered on 19 August 2024 about 0.5 nautical miles south‑east of Porticello, Italy.
Twelve guests and ten crew were aboard when the yacht was overwhelmed. Seven people died: six guests and one crew member, according to the MAIB's interim findings.
The MAIB said its interim work examined the vessel's stability, local weather conditions on the day and the effect of the weather on the yacht. That review was carried out to establish the sequence of events that led to the vessel capsizing and sinking.
Initial technical findings
The investigation's initial findings indicate that extreme wind conditions were sufficient to knock Bayesian over. The MAIB reports that the wind forces acting on the vessel reached levels at which the yacht could no longer remain upright.
Once the yacht heeled beyond 70 degrees the situation was judged irrecoverable. The interim report sets out that recovery was not possible after the angle of heel passed that threshold, and that the vessel subsequently foundered.
Areas examined by the enquiry
The MAIB's interim work reviewed the yacht's stability, the local weather at the time and how those weather conditions affected the vessel's behaviour. The report frames these elements as central to understanding why the yacht capsized and sank.
The branch cautioned that its conclusions are provisional. The MAIB emphasised the interim nature of the report, noting that findings may change as further evidence is examined and more information becomes available.
The publication of an interim report is an early stage in the formal investigative process. The MAIB's continuing inquiry will consider additional material and analysis before arriving at final conclusions and recommendations.
The sinking of Bayesian and the loss of life on 19 August 2024 remain subject to that ongoing work. The MAIB's interim report provides an initial technical appraisal but does not close the investigation, the branch underlined.
The shipping and leisure maritime communities will await the MAIB's full findings, which will set out the complete factual narrative and any safety lessons identified. For now the interim report identifies extreme wind and a critical angle of heel as the proximate causes of the vessel's loss.