Sources published a report on 23 September 2026 attempting to unpack the extraordinary surge in freight for dirty tankers, describing the exercise as an examination of three separate drivers behind what it called a historic rally.
The report says the first of those drivers is cargo supply and demand, and on that dimension it finds record VLCC rates are least justified. The source notes global crude departures have averaged about 44 million barrels per day over the last two and a half months, a level the analysis describes as roughly 5 million barrels per day lower than in the immediately preceding period.
The reports piece frames that statistic as a central tension: if crude loadings have not risen to match rates, other forces must be at work. The report does not stop at the cargo ledger but signals two further lines of inquiry to explain the divergence between physical trade and freight.
Cargo supply and demand
The cargo-focused section, as summarised by reports, is notable for its caution; the authors argue the underlying departure numbers provide limited support for the extremity of market moves. That assessment places emphasis on the apparent mismatch between physical crude flows and the scale of the freight spike.
The report’s topline departure figure is presented without further breakdown in the supplied notes, and the authors indicate they will explore other market mechanics alongside it. The implication is that a narrow focus on departures alone does not capture the full set of variables driving VLCC earnings.
Market mechanics and sentiment
reports says its wider project will examine additional drivers beyond cargo supply and demand, though the supplied notes do not specify those two elements. The framing suggests an inquiry into vessel availability, trading patterns and commercial behaviour may follow, while acknowledging the cargo case is weak as a sole explanation.
Readers are left with a clear message from the piece: traders and analysts should not assume the freight rally can be explained by simple increases in crude loadings. The report therefore positions itself to consider structural and behavioural explanations that can move rates independently of departures.
The note that departures have been about 44mbd over recent weeks and months is the most concrete data point provided. reports uses it to challenge narratives that tie the rate surge directly to a sudden upswing in crude cargo volumes.
Significantly, the report characterises the 44mbd measure as a short-run snapshot covering two and a half months; the authors contrast it with a prior period that was about 5mbd higher. Beyond that comparison the supplied notes do not offer further time-series detail or regional splits of loadings, leaving broader interpretation open.
The article situates The report as a methodical exercise: it will split the problem into three investigative parts and treat cargo supply and demand as the first, and comparatively weakest, explanatory pillar. That approach signals an analytical caution that will be of interest to market participants seeking to separate transient price moves from persistent trends.
Shortcomings in the supplied summary mean many of the piece’s subsequent findings are not available here. The decision to defer judgement on other drivers in the limited notes supplied underlines the need to read the full The report for the remaining two lines of inquiry and any recommended conclusions.
For now, the central takeaway published on 23 September 2026 is succinct: measured by recent crude departure volumes, the record VLCC freight levels are not strongly supported by cargo supply and demand alone, and the reports analysis will probe other market forces in pursuit of a fuller explanation.