UBS has raised its natural gas price forecasts for Europe through 2027, citing prolonged interruptions to liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf region and reduced storage levels across the European Union, according to a report published by reports on 9 October 2026. The bank said its revised outlook reflected a tighter supply balance that would keep upward pressure on wholesale gas prices, and it set a new fourth quarter benchmark for the Title Transfer Facility at €75 per megawatt hour, equivalent to about $25 per million British thermal units.
The firm signalled that the adjustments cover the period through 2027 and are driven principally by disruption to LNG flows from the Gulf region, a factor UBS described as extended rather than short lived. UBS tied that disruption together with the current state of European inventories, noting storage levels across the European Union are tighter than previously assumed and contribute to a more constrained supply picture.
UBS forecast and the TTF figure
UBS's revised price path places the Title Transfer Facility at €75 per megawatt hour in the fourth quarter, the report said, and expressed that outcome in both European and US energy pricing units to underline the change in wholesale market terms. The bank's publicised figure is intended as a near term reference point for European wholesale gas pricing under its updated assumptions.
Causes cited in the revision
In explaining its decision, UBS pointed to extended disruptions of liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf region alongside tighter-than-expected storage across the European Union; the combination, the bank said, reduced the margin of supply flexibility that had previously helped to dampen price moves. Those two elements were presented as the principal, proximate reasons for the upward revision to forecasts through 2027.
The report does not attempt to quantify the duration of the Gulf region interruptions beyond describing them as extended, nor does it provide additional figures for storage shortfalls in the European Union beyond the summary that inventories are tighter. Sources published the item dated 9 October 2026 and carried UBS's headline revision and the new TTF reference point as the core factual takeaways.
Taken together, UBS's revision signals a reassessment of the balance between supply and demand for gas in Europe under the bank's modelling assumptions for the period through 2027. The firm framed the new TTF number as a market benchmark under the conditions it described, while the report left open the extent to which subsequent developments in LNG flows or storage replenishment could alter that outlook.
The bank's update, as reported, is narrowly focused on wholesale price projections and the supply-side factors it has flagged; the published note does not detail downstream impacts or policy responses. Readers should understand the change as UBS's assessment under the specific conditions it outlined: prolonged Gulf-region LNG disruptions and a tighter storage backdrop across the European Union, producing a fourth quarter TTF reference of €75 per megawatt hour and a revised forecast pathway into 2027.
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