The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that maritime trade growth is set to stall in 2025, signalling a sharp deceleration from the 2.2% expansion recorded in 2024 to a forecast 0.5% next year. The UNCTAD assessment frames the slowdown as a product of rerouted voyages, shifting freight rates and a mismatch between rising emissions and the limited availability of alternative-fuel capable tonnage.
Rerouting around the Red Sea lifted recorded shipping ton-miles by a record 6% in 2024, a pace almost three times faster than the expansion in cargo volumes, UNCTAD reports. The detours increased the distance ships travelled, amplifying demand for capacity and adding strain to already tight vessel schedules without a proportional increase in loaded boxes.
The knock-on effects were stark for key chokepoints. By May 2025, Suez Canal tonnage remained about 70% below its 2023 level, according to the same UNCTAD figures, underlining the long-term impact of diverted trade routes on traditional north–south passages. The large shortfall in transits has sustained pressure on alternative corridors and on ship operators obliged to take lengthier passages.
Diversions and freight-market volatility
The mismatch between increased ton-miles and slower cargo growth fed through to freight markets. Dry-bulk rates experienced a pronounced surge driven by demand for coal, grain and fertilisers before easing in 2025 as additional vessel capacity entered service, a pattern documented by UNCTAD that reflected both commodity cycles and the timing of newbuild deliveries.
Longer voyages and temporary tightness also contributed to episodic peaks in container markets. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 points in 2024, some 149% higher than in 2023, and spot rates in July 2024 reached about $3,600 per container after approaching levels seen during the pandemic, underscoring the volatility shippers and charterers faced.
Emissions versus fuel readiness
The environmental ledger painted a worrying picture: shipping greenhouse-gas emissions rose by 5% in 2024, while only around 8% of global fleet tonnage was capable of using alternative fuels, UNCTAD notes. The gap between emissions growth and the share of vessels equipped for cleaner fuels highlights a structural challenge for the sector as regulators and markets push towards decarbonisation.
Taken together, these pressures help explain why overall maritime trade growth is expected to slow markedly in 2025. The combination of longer routing, spasmodic rate spikes, easing dry-bulk earnings as capacity came online and constrained alternative-fuel readiness has altered the economics of shipping sufficiently to dampen trade expansion despite continued demand for seaborne goods.
The figures underline the centrality of shipping to global commerce: more than 80% of world trade moves by sea, and small shifts in voyage distance, port throughput or vessel capability can have outsized effects on costs and supply-chain resilience. UNCTAD’s data show that the sector remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, commodity cycles and the pace of fleet adaptation to new fuels.
If the trends identified by UNCTAD persist, regulators, shipowners and charterers will face competing priorities, managing commercial volatility while also investing to meet emission-reduction targets, at a time when the basic arithmetic of trade growth is expected to offer only minimal expansion in 2025. The report leaves clear implications for ports, insurers and cargo owners that must factor longer transit distances and constrained alternative-fuel options into planning and pricing.
Markets and policymakers will be watching whether the additional capacity that eased dry-bulk rates in 2025 proves sufficient to stabilise freight markets, and whether the industry can accelerate retrofits and new orders for alternative-fuel capable tonnage to curb further emissions growth. UNCTAD’s analysis provides a statistical baseline for those assessments and a reminder that maritime trade dynamics remain a pivotal variable in the global economic outlook.