Sources indicated on 18 October 2026 that very recent data from its Tanker Market Monitor shows a clear divergence in very large crude carrier (VLCC) sailing speeds and regional vessel supply, a split that is complicating assessments of voyage turnaround and market balance.
In the Arabian Gulf the Monitor recorded opposing movements: vessels sailing in ballast have been accelerating while laden ships have reduced speed. The juxtaposition of faster ballast voyages and slower laden sailings means there has been no obvious improvement in overall voyage turnaround times.
To the west of Suez the surplus of ballast VLCCs has narrowed, the report found. That contrasts with a rising number of ballast units east of Suez, which is changing the shape of regional supply and the options available to charterers.
The Tanker Market Monitor also reviewed freight earnings alongside speed and supply trends. The report treats earnings data as a companion metric to movements and position lists rather than as a standalone signal, emphasising how the three measures interact.
Shipboard speed, whether on ballast or laden legs, remains an indicator of trader behaviour and voyage economics. Faster ballast sailings can reflect owners seeking quicker employment or strategic repositioning, while reduced laden speed may indicate longer laden voyage legs, weather or operational choices affecting discharge schedules.
Charterers and owners therefore face a market in which simple interpretations of days-on-station or fleet utilisation are less reliable. The Monitor’s assessment suggests that the same headline fleet numbers can conceal materially different operational patterns, depending on where ships are moving and under what conditions.
Regional contrasts in supply
The Monitor highlights a regional split. A narrowing ballast surplus in western areas points to tighter immediate availability for westbound employment, while the east-of-Suez ballast accumulation suggests growing optionality for cargoes and longer positioning movements in eastern trades.
Those contrasting regional balances are consequential for voyage planning. Where westbound availability tightens, owners may enjoy shorter idle times; where ballast numbers build, competition for employment increases and operational choices such as speed become more prominent.
What the speed divergence implies for turnaround and markets
Because ballast and laden speeds are moving in opposite directions in the Arabian Gulf, the usual metric of voyage turnaround - the aggregate of ballast leg, laden leg and port times - has not shown clear improvement. That complicates efforts to read volatility in freight rates purely from fleet lists.
The Monitor treats freight earnings as one strand of evidence but stops short of presenting a single causal chain. Instead, it underscores that freight levels, sailing speeds and regional ballast inventories must be read together to understand the short-term market dynamic.
Market participants will watch whether the east-of-Suez ballast build translates into an inflow of tonnage to western trades or whether regional employment patterns and longer laden legs keep ships in eastern waters. Any shift in that balance would alter the supply picture described by the Monitor.
reports’s Tanker Market Monitor therefore presents a picture of a VLCC market whose headline availability masks a more complex operational reality. The Monitor’s summary for the week of 18 October 2026 delivers a cautionary note for analysts seeking simple explanations in a market where speed and regional position are diverging signals.
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